FIFA World Cup 2026 Group Odds
All 12 Groups Analyzed
Every group dissected from a sportsbook angle—advance odds, hidden value spots, and the pricing distortions created by public money. 48 teams, 12 groups, one complete comparison.
Group A
Mexico leads Group A as the host nation favorite, with South Korea providing the main challenge.
Group A Sportsbook Analysis
Mexico's home-venue advantage at Estadio Azteca is already baked into the books—lines have barely moved since the draw. The interesting line is South Korea: at +120 to advance, books are essentially calling a coin flip between Korea and Czech Republic for second, yet public money keeps trickling toward Korea. Value may sit with Czechia if those numbers drift further.
Group B
Switzerland enters as clear favorites in Group B, with Canada seeking to impress on home soil.
Group B Sportsbook Analysis
Switzerland at -350 to advance is among the most one-sided group lines of the tournament. The real market action is on the second-place race: Canada's home support in Toronto creates a structural pricing distortion—public money inflates their advance odds by an estimated 15–20 points versus their true probability.
Group C
Brazil is the heavy favorite in Group C. Morocco could threaten the Seleção for the top spot.
Group C Sportsbook Analysis
Brazil's implied chance of topping Group C sits north of 85% at most books, which makes Morocco at +300 to advance an underrated proposition. The Atlas Lions have proven knockout-round pedigree and face a softer lower-bracket path if they can pip smaller opponents. Watch for line movement as squad announcements emerge.
Group D
The USA narrowly edges Türkiye as the Group D favorite, with both teams tipped to advance.
Group D Sportsbook Analysis
This is the group generating the most cross-book variance. The USA vs Türkiye favorite battle has flipped twice since the draw as injury news surfaced. Türkiye's set-piece threat is systematically underpriced by books that lean heavily on historical performance data—a known market inefficiency for teams with a new tactical setup.
Group E
Germany dominates Group E. Ecuador and Ivory Coast battle for second place.
Group E Sportsbook Analysis
Germany's implied group-win probability (+175 consensus) looks fair. The genuine pricing anomaly is Ecuador: consistently the third or fourth choice despite recent CONMEBOL competitive form that outpaces their FIFA ranking. Long-shot plays on Ecuador topping the group at +1800 have attracted sharp interest.
Group F
Netherlands tops Group F, while Japan is the main contender for second spot.
Group F Sportsbook Analysis
Netherlands is the clear book favorite, but Japan remains the most-bet team in Group F by ticket volume at US books. Public liability forces books to shade Japan's line shorter than their model output suggests—creating mild value on Netherlands' group-win price by comparison.
Group G
Belgium should dominate Group G. Egypt and Iran compete for the second qualifying berth.
Group G Sportsbook Analysis
Belgium's squad depth makes them near-locks to advance (-650 or shorter at most outlets). The tactical matchup between Egypt and Iran for second carries genuine uncertainty: these two meet in Matchday 2 in a direct 'playoff', making that specific game a stand-alone betting focus rather than an outright-advance play.
Group H
Spain are massive favorites in Group H. Uruguay fights for second with a chance to surprise.
Group H Sportsbook Analysis
Spain are the most heavily-backed futures team in Group H across UK books, a dynamic that compresses their price versus their true probability. Uruguay under Carlos Silva present an interesting second-place value: physicality and dead-ball proficiency are attributes that outperform statistical models, particularly against African and Asian opposition.
Group I
France dominates Group I. Norway enters as a dark horse capable of topping the group.
Group I Sportsbook Analysis
France's -1500 to advance is one of the strongest single-group lines in the entire tournament. Norway, however, is drawing significant Scandinavian betting volume—enough that major European books have moved their advance price from -200 to -300 over two months. Erling Haaland's fitness is the single biggest pricing variable in this group.
Group J
Defending champions Argentina headline Group J. Austria will fight hard for second place.
Group J Sportsbook Analysis
Defending champions Argentina attract enormous sentimental and national wagering, which typically results in their prices being 5–8% shorter than their true model probability. For bettors, that means the value play is fading Argentina at inflated lines, not chasing. Austria's defensive discipline makes them a credible upset candidate at +600.
Group K
Portugal leads Group K, with Colombia's talented squad as the main challenge.
Group K Sportsbook Analysis
Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo factor creates distorted public pricing—books routinely report Portugal as the most-wagered team in the tournament by dollar volume. Colombia at +4000 represents one of the deepest value spots in Group K: world-class midfield talent and an underrated CONMEBOL record since their 2024 Copa América run.
Group L
England are strong favorites in Group L, with Croatia the main threat for top spot.
Group L Sportsbook Analysis
England's -1500 advance line is near-impossible to beat in isolation, but the Group L futures market offers a nuance: Croatia, despite their advancing age, consistently overperform closing-line value in knockout rounds. Backing Croatia to top the group at +600 is a small-edge play that attracts professional interest most tournaments.
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